This project aims to understand how climate change affects extreme water levels in the North Sea. Regional climate change impacts on extreme water levels at the coast are associated with high uncertainty due to the interactions of tides, storms, precipitation, sea level variations and influences of human coastal constructions. Based on the corresponding work on process understanding and statistical description, a knowledge base is to be created to help users, decision-makers and society plan their response to the changed effects. For this purpose, uncertainties, occurrence of extreme risks and influence of human activities are addressed and summarized in the sense of a cross-association synthesis.

Particular focus will be laid on the investigation of the interplay of external surges, tides, hydro-meteorological events and sea level rise, which are conducted through sensitivity analysis using a regional hydrodynamic model. Compound events are of particular relevance, since the impact can be increased by the combined occurrence of different weather conditions or sequences of meteorological factors. The project will increase direct exchange with stakeholders and consider their needs for practical scientific insights. The direct reference to the questions and datasets of stakeholders facilitates an intensive two-way exchange, ensuring application-oriented usability and effective communication of the results for non-scientific partners involved, which includes the contributions from other modules.

Institution: Institute of Oceanography, University of Hamburg¹; Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon²

Contact: Priv. Doz. Dr. Thomas Pohlmann¹, Dr. Xin Liu², Dr. Ralf Weisse², Dr. Moritz Mathis²