Climate extremes, especially heat waves, are considered to be one of the most devastating effects of climate change. Anthropogenic modifications of the atmospheric composition may drive changes in heat extremes. Both the increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the decreasing concentrations of anthropogenic aerosols may lead to more severe heat waves over Europe. Heat waves can be caused by a combination of dynamical and thermodynamical drivers. This project aims to (i) disentangle the contributions of different anthropogenic drivers such as GHGs and AERs to summer heat waves over Europe using single-forcing large ensemble climate model simulations alongside clustering and pattern recognition methods, and (ii) assess the contribution of dynamical versus thermodynamical components to the increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves over Europe using the method of dynamical adjustment.

Website: PATTERA

Institution: University of Leipzig, Institute for Meteorology¹, University of Reading, Department of Meteorology^²

Contact: Prof. Dr. J. Quaas¹, Jun. Prof. Dr. Sebastian. Sippel¹, Jun. Prof. Dr. Melanie. Kretschmer^1,2