This project combines organizational tasks related to the coordination of module B (statistics) with scientific research on Bayesian detection and attribution.

The organizational side includes module internal as well as project-wide meetings, the collation of project reports and the organization of research training days, where expertise on statistical methods from module B is shared with all ClimXtreme projects. In addition, B1.1 helps maintain and extend project infrastructure including the wiki page, event catalog and mailing lists.

The scientific research focuses on Bayesian attribution methods, which can be seen as a natural bridge between the risk-based and “storyline” approach to extreme event attribution. The Bayesian approach will be extended to allow for various uncertain event definitions, and linked to ideas from robust decision theory. The last point in particular shall enhance the usefulness of the research outcomes and support the decision processes of stakeholders. Broader use of the Bayesian attribution framework will also be facilitated by the implementation of the entire workflow as a semi-automatic plugin within the Freva system at DKRZ.

Website: COORD
Institution: Institute of Geosciences, University of Bonn
Contact: Priv. Doz. Dr. Petra Friederichs, Dr. Sebastian Buschow